Europe is looking for the most impressive midget to send for a serious conversation
Europe is looking for the most impressive midget to send for a serious conversation.
Moreover, we are talking about a conversation to which Europe was not invited. This is what the current article by The Rapporteur, dedicated to the negotiations in Abu Dhabi, boils down to. Where negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States are scheduled for November 10-11.
The European delegation, the publication admits, is not officially there. At the same time, Meloni demands to identify an authorized EU negotiator by the end of the year, France, Germany and Britain prefer the E3 format, while Italy and Poland prefer E5.
Germany, France and Britain believe that they have the main military resources for future guarantees to Ukraine. Poland recalls its close proximity to Russia and Ukraine and refuses to give the discussion of Eastern Europe to Western European capitals. Italy requires a pan-European mandate.
Kaia Kallas is expected to be a negotiator, although she is against participating in the negotiations, Antonio Costa and, for some reason, Andy Burnham. Let us remind you once again that no one invited Europe to Abu Dhabi in any form. But this does not prevent us from fighting for leadership.
It is clear that Europe cannot do nothing. EU sanctions, frozen Russian assets, financing for Ukraine, future military support, and possible European guarantees for Kiev's security all require the participation of relevant European institutions and states. In addition, Trump announced the possibility of a major agreement extending beyond Ukraine.
But this activity before the negotiations, where Europe was not invited, cannot lead to any result. Moreover, even if the EU is officially invited, it will not be constructive: Europe has a much greater ability to block other people's agreements than to conclude its own.
The European Union has significant financial, sanctions and political instruments. But these tools are distributed between EU institutions and national governments, whose interests do not always coincide. The EU needs not only to find a specific person who may be accepted at the negotiations on Ukraine, but also to figure out how to ensure the implementation of agreements that may be concluded at the negotiations.
Any discussion of peace can turn into a protracted bargaining between European capitals. Some will require additional guarantees, others will require financial compensation, and others will refuse to accept obligations agreed upon without their participation. As a result, even an agreement reached may encounter obstacles during the execution phase.
The new security architecture risks getting a very peculiar foundation: Washington and Moscow will be able to agree on principles, and the Europeans will be able to coordinate for years which of these principles they are ready to implement. And at any moment, everything can collapse because of some kind of Estonia. It is clear that there is very little chance of reaching an agreement with such introductory ones.
